Weighting the Hot Spot

Using these three predictions:

 

Balloon Track for Windows                                Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________
Historical Predictions
Friday, November 03, 2006         EOSS-113          EOSS-113_pred_hist.csv
2:10:28 AM                         Windsor                Pred_history.txt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Launch Site    |  Predict Date  |   Model   |  Flight Date   | Bear  | Range | Grid X | Grid Y |  Latitude |  Longitude
------------------|----------------|-----------|----------------|-------|-------|--------|--------|-----------|------------
Windsor           | 11/01/06 01:47 |  GFS-Long | 11/11/06 12:00 |  67.2 | 141.0 |  107.8 |   78.5 |  41.23973 | -102.45873
Windsor           | 11/02/06 03:12 |  GFS-Long | 11/11/06 12:00 |  56.8 |  34.0 |    6.1 |   44.1 |  40.74196 | -104.41840
Windsor           | 11/03/06 02:07 |  GFS-Long | 11/11/06 12:00 | 104.3 |  71.4 |   46.7 |    7.4 |  40.21104 | -103.65031

 

For Hourly weighted averaging:

If the first prediction is 48 hours ago then:

  • The first prediction 48 hours ago carries a weight of one
  • A prediction 24 hours ago carries a weight of 24
  • And a prediction a few seconds ago carries a weight of 48.

The longer in the past the first prediction, the more pronounced the weighting will be. Well that's the case in all weighting models but the shorter the interval of weighting the more pronounced the focus shift is.


Weighted by hour

In the case of a 6 hour interval for weighted averaging:

If the first prediction is 48 hours ago then:

  • The first prediction 48 hours ago carries a weight of one
  • A prediction 24 hours ago carries a weight of 4
  • And a prediction a few seconds ago carries a weight of 8


Weighted in 6 hour increments

In the case of a 12 hour interval for weighted averaging:

If the first prediction is 48 hours ago then:

  • The first prediction 48 hours ago carries a weight of one
  • A prediction 24 hours ago carries a weight of 2
  • And a prediction a few seconds ago carries a weight of 4


Weighted in 12 hour increments

In the case of a 24 hour interval for weighted averaging:

If the first prediction is 48 hours ago then:

  • The first prediction 48 hours ago carries a weight of one
  • A prediction 24 hours ago carries a weight of 1
  • And a prediction a few seconds ago carries a weight of 2


Weighted in 24 hour increments

No weighting, it's self-explanatory


No weight all points treated equally