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EOSS Balloon Flight Prediction

Prediction pages 01/16/2010 11:17:46 (CDT)

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Note: Predictions are now using two ascent rates, one for below 45K feet and a second above that altitude. Check out the text printout below for the rates used.

Primary Launch Prediction for Deer Trail

Track Files - Files available the evening prior to flight only


Prediction from Previous Flight

EOSS-149 Prediction

Saturday January 16th, 2010
Deer Trail, Colorado

Confidence Level

See the Text Printout below for date of data acquisition.


Green Track = Ascent
Red Track = Descent
Prediction made with Balloon Track
Maps with
MapPoint

 


Green Track = Ascent
Red Track = Descent
Red Circle = 20 nautical miles from DIA
Yellow Circle = Class B 30 nautical miles from DIA
Prediction made with Balloon Track

Maps with Google Earth

EOSS-149_predict_track.kml


FAA Prediction

                Bear Rng  EL. Vertical                      Dist. Bearing Range VOR
 Time      Alt   Deg  Mi. Deg   FPM   Latitude  Longitude  to LOS   Mag    NM   ID
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     < 1  5205   74    1   59   1324   39.6114  -104.0425    <1      89    27   FQF
       7 14000  146    1   53   1324   39.5962  -104.0293   126      91    28   FQF
      14 24000  163    4   44   1324   39.5605  -104.0229   184      95    29   FQF
      32 45000  150   12   33    949   39.4662  -103.9353   268     102    34   FQF
      48 60000  129   14   36    949   39.4816  -103.8374   315     234    32   TXC
      87 97000  120   19   42    949   39.4735  -103.7359   408     229    28   TXC
      95 60000  118   20   27  -3556   39.4731  -103.7094   317     228    27   TXC
     100 45000  115   22   19  -2484   39.4783  -103.6755   271     226    25   TXC
     112 24000  120   26    8  -1525   39.4255  -103.6274   188     218    25   TXC
     119 14000  124   27    3  -1239   39.3901  -103.6215   131     214    26   TXC
     128  4500  125   29   -1  -1032   39.3732  -103.6038     1     211    27   TXC


FQF = Falcon CO, TXC = Thurman CO

Prediction

Balloon Track for Windows                                Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________

                              Flight Prediction

Saturday, January 16, 2010        eoss-149    GFS-Short_10_01_16_1500Z.dat
6:33:46 AM                       Deer Trail                   wbaltrak.ini
__________________________________________________________________________

Winds DataFile
-----------------------
        Station: DEN
    Flight Date: 16-Jan-10 15:00
     Model Date: 16-Jan-10 06:00
DataFile Status: Intact 
 Intact Records: 18 
Corrupt Records: 0 

Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
 Reference Site: Last Chance
       Latitude: 39.74068° lat.   
      Longitude: -103.59358° long.
       X_Offset: 32.00
       Y_Offset: 62.00
Grid Origin
       Latitude: 38.84274° lat.   
      Longitude: -104.19628° long.

Launch Site - Deer Trail
-----------------------
   Launch Point: 39.61137° lat.   -104.04255° long.
           Grid: X=8.18 Y=53.07
    Ascent Rate: 1324 feet per minute
   Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute
       Altitude: 5205 feet

Maximums Enroute
-----------------------
Distance to LOS: 407.6 Mi.
  Maximum Range: 28.7 Mi.
  Maximum Winds: 49.0 mph from 325° at 38,891 feet altitude

Burst Data
-----------------------
    Burst Point: 39.47346° lat.  -103.73593° long.
           Grid: X=24.5 Y=43.5
     Burst Time: 86.7 minutes
 Burst Altitude: 97,000 feet
  Burst Bearing: 120.2°
    Burst Range: 18.9 Mi.

Predicted Landing Site
-----------------------
  Landing Point: 39.37334° lat.  -103.60089° long.
           Grid: X=31.8 Y=36.6
       Altitude: 4500 feet
    Flight Time: 128 Minutes
        Bearing: 124.8° True
          Range: 28.7 Mi.
__________________________________________________________________________

                Bear Rng  EL. Balloon Vertical                                     Dist. Bear   Range VOR
 Time      Alt   Deg  Mi. Deg Trk Spd    FPM   Latitude  Longitude  GridX   GridY to LOS  Mag    NM    ID
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     < 1  5205   74    1   59  74   9   1324   39.6114  -104.0425    8.18   53.07    <1    89    27   FQF
     < 1  6493   74    1   59  75  11   1324   39.6120  -104.0399    8.32   53.11    48    89    27   FQF
       2  8215   75    1   56 140  11   1324   39.6128  -104.0356    8.55   53.17    74    89    28   FQF
       4 10043  100    1   59 172  17   1324   39.6100  -104.0325    8.71   52.98    94    89    28   FQF
       5 11978  130    1   59 168  22   1324   39.6041  -104.0314    8.77   52.57   111    90    28   FQF
       7 14035  146    1   53 175  25   1324   39.5960  -104.0292    8.89   52.01   126    91    28   FQF
       8 16237  156    2   48 179  23   1324   39.5860  -104.0281    8.95   51.32   141    92    28   FQF
      10 18599  162    3   45 169  19   1324   39.5761  -104.0279    8.96   50.64   156    93    28   FQF
      12 21165  164    3   44 163  14   1324   39.5674  -104.0257    9.08   50.04   170    94    29   FQF
      14 23963  163    4   44 150  11   1324   39.5606  -104.0230    9.23   49.56   184    95    29   FQF
      16 27044  162    4   45 142  12   1324   39.5552  -104.0189    9.44   49.19   199    96    29   FQF
      19 30472  160    5   46 148  14   1324   39.5493  -104.0130    9.76   48.79   214    96    29   FQF
      22 34350  158    5   46 143  24   1324   39.5409  -104.0062   10.12   48.21   230    97    30   FQF
      25 38891  155    7   44 145  49   1324   39.5250  -103.9907   10.95   47.11   247    98    31   FQF
      32 44678  151   12   33  80  17    949   39.4659  -103.9371   13.81   43.03   267   102    34   FQF
      40 53084  140   13   36  77  24    949   39.4722  -103.8907   16.28   43.46   294   235    34   TXC
      55 67254  121   16   36  95  10    949   39.4914  -103.7815   22.10   44.79   335   233    29   TXC
      75 86345  116   19   38 224   7    949   39.4870  -103.7188   25.44   44.49   383   230    27   TXC
      87 97000  120   19   42 224   7    949   39.4735  -103.7359   24.54   43.55   408   229    28   TXC
      88 86345  121   19   39 224   7  -6622   39.4715  -103.7384   24.41   43.41   385   229    28   TXC
      93 67254  120   20   31  95  10  -4228   39.4705  -103.7243   25.16   43.35   337   228    27   TXC
      98 53084  116   21   23  77  24  -3014   39.4765  -103.6899   26.99   43.76   297   227    26   TXC
     101 44678  115   22   19  80  17  -2465   39.4789  -103.6720   27.94   43.93   270   226    25   TXC
     104 38891  117   24   15 145  49  -2146   39.4527  -103.6485   29.21   42.12   249   222    25   TXC
     106 34350  118   25   12 143  24  -1926   39.4418  -103.6379   29.77   41.36   232   220    25   TXC
     108 30472  119   25   11 148  14  -1760   39.4354  -103.6328   30.05   40.92   217   219    25   TXC
     110 27044  119   25    9 142  12  -1630   39.4306  -103.6280   30.31   40.59   202   218    25   TXC
     112 23963  120   26    8 150  11  -1524   39.4260  -103.6246   30.49   40.27   188   217    25   TXC
     114 21165  120   26    6 163  14  -1435   39.4196  -103.6221   30.63   39.83   174   217    25   TXC
     116 18599  121   26    5 169  19  -1360   39.4111  -103.6200   30.74   39.25   160   216    25   TXC
     118 16237  123   27    4 179  23  -1296   39.4010  -103.6198   30.76   38.55   146   215    26   TXC
     120 14035  124   27    3 175  25  -1240   39.3903  -103.6187   30.82   37.81   131   213    26   TXC
     121 11978  125   28    2 168  22  -1190   39.3814  -103.6163   30.95   37.19   116   212    27   TXC
     123 10043  126   28    2 172  17  -1146   39.3745  -103.6151   31.02   36.72   100   212    27   TXC
     125  8215  126   28    1 140  11  -1107   39.3711  -103.6115   31.22   36.48    82   211    27   TXC
     126  6493  125   29    1  75  11  -1071   39.3722  -103.6061   31.50   36.56    60   211    27   TXC
     128  4500  125   29   -1  74   9  -1032   39.3733  -103.6009   31.78   36.64     1   211    26   TXC

FQF = Falcon CO, TXC = Thurman CO

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