EOSS Balloon Flight Prediction

Prediction pages 05/02/2012 10:45:38 (CDT)

Note: Predictions are now using two ascent rates, one for below 45K feet and a second above that altitude. Check out the text printout below for the rates used.

Randy Collander's NOAA predictions

Flights from:

• Windsor, CO
• Deer Trail, CO

Primary Launch Prediction for Windsor, Colorado

• Standard Prediction (below)
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• Denver International Airport (DEN) Class B Airspace Predictions
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EOSS-175 Prediction

Wednesday May 2nd, 2012
Coors Field, Denver, CO

Confidence Level

See the Text Printout below for date of data acquisition.

Green Track = Ascent
Red Track = Descent
Prediction made with Balloon Track
Maps with MapPoint

 

Green Track = Ascent
Red Track = Descent
Red Circle = 20 nautical miles from DIA Control Tower
Red Lines on Ground = DIA Class B airspace
Yellow Circle = Class B 30 nautical miles from DEN-VOR
Prediction made with Balloon Track
Maps with Google Earth

EOSS-175_predict_track.kml

 

FAA Prediction

                Bear Rng  EL. Vertical                      Dist. Bearing Range VOR
 Time      Alt   Deg  Mi. Deg   FPM   Latitude  Longitude  to LOS   Mag    NM   ID
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     < 1  5277   83    1   87   1500   39.7567  -104.9942    <1     134    12   BJC
       6 14000   66    1   72   1500   39.7598  -104.9847   126     132    12   BJC
      12 24000   67    4   41   1500   39.7798  -104.9224   184     250    12   DEN
      28 45000   56   22   19   1075   39.9310  -104.6552   268     313     3   DVV
      42 60000   59   34   17   1075   40.0115  -104.4411   315      39    11   DVV
      70 90000   55   43   20   1075   40.1119  -104.3232   392      36    19   DVV
      76 60000   55   45   13  -4304   40.1336  -104.2946   317      36    21   DVV
      80 45000   55   49    8  -3007   40.1603  -104.2229   271      38    24   DVV
      90 24000   55   60    3  -1846   40.2517  -104.0656   188     114    27   GLL
      96 14000   56   63    1  -1500   40.2689  -104.0089   131     109    29   GLL
     103  4500   56   64   -1  -1249   40.2724  -103.9979     1     109    29   GLL


BJC = Jeffco Air CO, DEN = Denver CO, DVV = Mile Hi CO, GLL = Gill CO

Prediction

Balloon Track for Windows                                Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________

                              Flight Prediction

Wednesday, May 02, 2012           EOSS-175    GFS-Short_12_05_02_1800Z.dat
9:37:49 AM                       Coors Field                  wbaltrak.ini
__________________________________________________________________________

Winds DataFile
-----------------------
        Station: DEN
    Flight Date: 02-May-12 18:00
     Model Date: 02-May-12 06:00
DataFile Status: Intact 
 Intact Records: 18 
Corrupt Records: 0 

Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
 Reference Site: Int 71-14 West
       Latitude: 40.61025° lat.   
      Longitude: -103.6769° long.
       X_Offset: 70.00
       Y_Offset: 60.00
Grid Origin
       Latitude: 39.74127° lat.   
      Longitude: -105.01224° long.

Launch Site - Coors Field
-----------------------
   Launch Point: 39.75667° lat.   -104.99417° long.
           Grid: X=.96 Y=1.06
    Ascent Rate: 1500 feet per minute
   Descent Rate: 1150 feet per minute
       Altitude: 5277 feet

Maximums Enroute
-----------------------
Distance to LOS: 391.6 Mi.
  Maximum Range: 63.9 Mi.
  Maximum Winds: 81.0 mph from 240° at 39,465 feet altitude

Burst Data
-----------------------
    Burst Point: 40.1119° lat.  -104.32319° long.
           Grid: X=36.4 Y=25.6
     Burst Time: 69.8 minutes
 Burst Altitude: 90,000 feet
  Burst Bearing: 55.2°
    Burst Range: 43.2 Mi.

Predicted Landing Site
-----------------------
  Landing Point: 40.27422° lat.  -103.9932° long.
           Grid: X=53.7 Y=36.8
       Altitude: 4500 feet
    Flight Time: 103 Minutes
        Bearing: 55.7° True
          Range: 63.9 Mi.
__________________________________________________________________________

                Bear Rng  EL. Balloon Vertical                                     Dist. Bear   Range VOR
 Time      Alt   Deg  Mi. Deg Trk Spd    FPM   Latitude  Longitude  GridX   GridY to LOS  Mag    NM    ID
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     < 1  5277   83    1   87  83   1   1500   39.7567  -104.9942    0.96    1.06    <1   134    12   BJC
     < 1  6368   83    1   87  68   3   1500   39.7567  -104.9939    0.97    1.06    44   134    12   BJC
       2  8156   71    1   83  62   5   1500   39.7570  -104.9929    1.03    1.09    72   134    12   BJC
       3 10036   65    1   79  64   7   1500   39.7577  -104.9912    1.12    1.14    93   133    12   BJC
       4 12018   65    1   76  69  10   1500   39.7587  -104.9886    1.26    1.20   110   133    12   BJC
       6 14111   67    1   71  76  16   1500   39.7599  -104.9845    1.47    1.29   126   132    12   BJC
       7 16342   70    1   65  78  26   1500   39.7613  -104.9772    1.86    1.38   142   130    12   BJC
       9 18747   74    2   57  69  39   1500   39.7634  -104.9644    2.54    1.53   156   128    12   BJC
      11 21355   72    3   48  58  47   1500   39.7692  -104.9445    3.59    1.93   171   124    12   BJC
      13 24203   67    4   40  51  55   1500   39.7806  -104.9208    4.85    2.72   185   250    12   DEN
      15 27343   62    6   34  48  62   1500   39.7981  -104.8926    6.35    3.92   200   254    11   DEN
      17 30846   58    8   30  48  64   1500   39.8215  -104.8588    8.14    5.54   215   262     9   DEN
      20 34820   56   11   26  50  67   1500   39.8488  -104.8191   10.24    7.42   231   276     8   DEN
      23 39465   54   15   24  60  81   1500   39.8809  -104.7690   12.89    9.64   249   298     6   DEN
      28 45285   56   22   19  64  63   1075   39.9335  -104.6493   19.22   13.28   269   320     3   DVV
      36 53514   58   30   17  63  42   1075   39.9841  -104.5125   26.44   16.77   295    33     7   DVV
      49 67621   59   39   16  26  16   1075   40.0438  -104.3572   34.62   20.89   336    43    15   DVV
      67 86755   56   43   19 325  11   1075   40.1053  -104.3172   36.70   25.13   384    37    19   DVV
      70 90000   55   43   20 325  11   1075   40.1119  -104.3232   36.39   25.59   392    36    19   DVV
      70 86755   55   43   19 325  11  -8092   40.1128  -104.3240   36.34   25.65   386    36    19   DVV
      74 67621   54   44   15  26  16  -5163   40.1256  -104.3156   36.78   26.54   338    35    20   DVV
      78 53514   55   47   11  63  42  -3686   40.1429  -104.2702   39.16   27.73   298    37    22   DVV
      80 45285   55   50    8  64  63  -3028   40.1607  -104.2214   41.73   28.96   272    38    24   DVV
      83 39465   56   52    7  60  81  -2634   40.1820  -104.1722   44.31   30.43   252   128    26   GLL
      85 34820   55   55    5  50  67  -2357   40.2023  -104.1400   46.00   31.83   234   124    26   GLL
      86 30846   55   57    4  48  64  -2149   40.2212  -104.1120   47.46   33.14   218   120    26   GLL
      88 27343   55   58    4  48  62  -1986   40.2386  -104.0861   48.82   34.34   203   117    27   GLL
      90 24203   55   60    3  51  55  -1854   40.2526  -104.0630   50.02   35.31   189   114    27   GLL
      92 21355   55   61    2  58  47  -1745   40.2622  -104.0423   51.11   35.97   175   112    28   GLL
      93 18747   55   62    2  69  39  -1652   40.2674  -104.0240   52.06   36.33   161   110    28   GLL
      95 16342   55   63    1  78  26  -1572   40.2693  -104.0117   52.71   36.46   146   109    29   GLL
      96 14111   56   63    1  76  16  -1503   40.2706  -104.0044   53.10   36.55   132   109    29   GLL
      98 12018   56   63    1  69  10  -1442   40.2719  -104.0001   53.32   36.64   117   109    29   GLL
      99 10036   56   64    1  64   7  -1387   40.2729  -103.9972   53.47   36.71   100   108    29   GLL
     100  8156   56   64    1  62   5  -1338   40.2737  -103.9952   53.58   36.76    81   108    29   GLL
     102  6368   56   64   -1  68   3  -1293   40.2740  -103.9940   53.64   36.79    58   108    29   GLL
     103  5246   56   64   -1  83   1  -1266   40.2741  -103.9937   53.65   36.79    37   108    29   GLL
     103  4500   56   64   -1  68   3  -1249   40.2742  -103.9932   53.68   36.80     1   108    29   GLL

BJC = Jeffco Air CO, DEN = Denver CO, DVV = Mile Hi CO, GLL = Gill CO

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