Confidence Levels (Low)
 |
All models are in
disagreement |
Two of these predictions are sort of close (GFS and NAM),
however note that the tracks are quite dissimilar. When models disagree this
much on the track, even if they both land at the same location I would
classify the models in fundamental disagreement. The third AFWS model is
totally divergent. So, while not totally extreme in diversity and I've seen
some amazing divergence, this series of predictions would represent in my mind
a Low Confidence level in the prediction.
Maps
Here are three predictions made at the same time on maps showing a track for
the same date and time in the future.
| Date Prediction Made |
July 26, 2006 23:20 UTC |
| Date of Flight (actually the UTC time of the model's
prediction) |
July 29, 2006 12:00 UTC |
GFS Short Range Prediction
NAM 40 KM
AFWA 45 KM
Raw Data and Prediction Output
GFS Short
Raw Data
YR: 2006 MON: 07 DAY: 29 HOUR: 12 AT POSITION: 104.6 76.0 LAT.: 39.87 LON.:-104.67 ELEV: 1656 m
PRSS: .8145E+03
MSLP: .1011E+04
TPP6: .0000E+00
UMOF: -.6155E-01
VMOF: -.6763E-01
SHTF: -.4279E+02
DSWF: .0000E+00
RH2M: .5786E+02
U10M: .1819E+01
V10M: .1166E+01
T02M: .2901E+03
TCLD: .8213E+02
SHGT: .1839E+04
CAPE: .0000E+00
CINH: -.2411E+00
LISD: .2769E+03
LIB4: .3409E+01
PBLH: .1690E+03
PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD
HPA M C C DEG M/S
E = Estimated Surface Height
815. 1839. 16.9 8.6 212.7 2.2
800. 1997. 20.4 8.0 218.4 5.7
750. 2551. 18.8 .9 222.4 4.6
700. 3140. 16.1 -2.6 222.9 2.2
650. 3764. 12.1 -5.0 180.6 .4
600. 4428. 7.0 -7.7 87.0 2.3
550. 5137. 1.8 -11.6 76.4 5.7
500. 5897. -4.2 -15.3 73.3 8.1
450. 6718. -10.2 -18.7 79.2 8.5
400. 7615. -15.9 -18.4 95.5 5.9
350. 8609. -22.4 -25.1 106.5 2.9
300. 9722. -30.6 -34.1 217.4 1.2
250. 10990. -41.0 -42.7 226.0 7.2
200. 12469. -52.1 -56.8 251.3 8.7
150. 14281. -62.2 -75.0 205.2 6.8
100. 16747. -66.8 -100.5 208.1 2.4
50. 20997. -58.7 -273.1 99.2 6.9
20. 26875. -47.9 -273.1 79.5 17.3
HEIGHT DT/DZ TDIFF CRITICAL INVERSION
1839. .001 1.1
1997. .033 5.3 ****
2551. .007 4.1 ****
3140. .006 3.2 ****
3764. .004 2.3
4428. .002 1.6
5137. .003 1.9
5897. .002 1.7
6718. .003 2.4
7615. .004 4.0
8609. .004 4.2
9722. .003 3.7
10990. .002 2.9
12469. .003 5.0
14281. .007 12.7 ****
16747. .014 35.7 ****
20997. .025 **** ****
26875. .031 **** ****
---end raw data---
Balloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________
Flight Prediction
Wednesday, July 26, 2006 EOSS-109 GFS-Short_06_07_29_1200Z.dat
11:16:49 PM Deer Trail wbaltrak.ini
__________________________________________________________________________
Winds DataFile
-----------------------
Station: DEN
Date: 1200Z 29 07 2006
DataFile Status: Intact
Intact Records: 18
Corrupt Records: 0
Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
Reference Site: Punkin Center
Latitude: 38.8521° lat.
Longitude: -103.7005° long.
X_Offset: 51.50
Y_Offset: 5.50
Grid Origin
Latitude: 38.7724° lat.
Longitude: -104.6583° long.
Launch Site - Deer Trail
-----------------------
Launch Point: 39.6114° lat. -104.0426° long.
Grid: X=32.75 Y=57.93
Ascent Rate: 1100 feet per minute
Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute
Altitude: 5205 feet
VOR Station - Denver CO
-----------------------
Latitude: 39.8125° lat.
Longitude: -104.6607° long.
Magnetic Offset: -11.0° from True Degrees
Maximums Enroute
-----------------------
Distance to LOS: 403.1 Mi.
Maximum Range: 11.1 Mi.
Maximum Winds: 39.0 mph from 80° at 88,173 feet altitude
Burst Data
-----------------------
Burst Point: 39.6764° lat. -104.1746° long.
Grid: X=25.7 Y=62.4
Burst Time: 81.6 minutes
Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet
Burst Bearing: 302.6°
Burst Range: 8.3 Mi.
Predicted Landing Site
-----------------------
Landing Point: 39.7105° lat. -104.2066° long.
Grid: X=24.0 Y=64.8
Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight Time: 122 Minutes
Bearing: 308.2° True
Range: 11.1 Mi.
__________________________________________________________________________
Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR
Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM Latitude Longitude to LOS Mag NM ID
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
< 1 5255 33 1 68 1100 39.6114 -104.0425 10 102 31 DEN
1 6552 33 1 68 1100 39.6126 -104.0415 49 102 31 DEN
3 8369 37 1 53 1100 39.6167 -104.0374 76 101 31 DEN
5 10302 39 1 52 1100 39.6198 -104.0337 96 101 31 DEN
6 12349 40 1 56 1100 39.6215 -104.0317 114 100 31 DEN
8 14528 38 1 62 1100 39.6220 -104.0317 130 100 31 DEN
11 16854 29 1 69 1100 39.6218 -104.0350 145 100 31 DEN
13 19347 353 1 77 1100 39.6201 -104.0439 160 101 31 DEN
15 22041 297 1 75 1100 39.6170 -104.0572 175 102 30 DEN
18 24984 278 2 67 1100 39.6147 -104.0728 189 102 30 DEN
21 28245 277 2 63 1100 39.6156 -104.0848 204 103 29 DEN
24 31896 279 3 63 1100 39.6169 -104.0908 220 103 29 DEN
28 36056 282 3 67 1100 39.6191 -104.0887 236 103 29 DEN
32 40909 310 2 73 1100 39.6310 -104.0728 254 101 29 DEN
38 46854 1 2 76 1100 39.6390 -104.0423 275 99 30 DEN
45 54944 12 4 69 1100 39.6632 -104.0277 300 96 31 DEN
58 68888 16 5 69 1100 39.6767 -104.0184 339 94 31 DEN
75 88173 330 6 69 1100 39.6866 -104.0998 387 95 27 DEN
82 95000 303 8 64 1100 39.6764 -104.1746 403 99 24 DEN
83 88173 300 9 61 6908 39.6747 -104.1865 388 100 23 DEN
87 68888 298 10 51 4396 39.6772 -104.2069 340 100 22 DEN
91 54944 300 10 44 3151 39.6819 -104.2036 301 99 22 DEN
95 46854 304 10 38 2597 39.6921 -104.1974 275 98 23 DEN
97 40909 308 9 35 2252 39.6961 -104.1826 255 96 23 DEN
100 36056 312 9 32 2005 39.7026 -104.1739 237 95 23 DEN
102 31896 313 9 28 1819 39.7039 -104.1726 221 95 23 DEN
104 28245 312 10 24 1674 39.7048 -104.1765 205 95 23 DEN
106 24984 311 10 20 1558 39.7055 -104.1850 190 95 23 DEN
108 22041 308 10 17 1462 39.7037 -104.1968 176 96 22 DEN
110 19347 305 11 14 1382 39.7012 -104.2073 161 97 22 DEN
112 16854 304 11 11 1313 39.6998 -104.2148 146 97 22 DEN
114 14528 303 11 9 1252 39.6996 -104.2177 131 97 22 DEN
116 12349 303 11 7 1199 39.7001 -104.2177 115 97 22 DEN
117 10302 304 11 5 1152 39.7016 -104.2158 98 97 22 DEN
119 8369 306 11 3 1110 39.7048 -104.2122 78 96 22 DEN
121 6552 308 11 1 1072 39.7090 -104.2079 53 95 22 DEN
122 5000 308 11 -1 1041 39.7105 -104.2066 1 95 22 DEN
NAM 40 KM
Raw Data
YR: 2006 MON: 07 DAY: 29 HOUR: 12 AT POSITION: 84.0 63.4 LAT.: 39.87 LON.:-104.67 ELEV: 1656 m
MSLP: .1008E+04
TMPS: .2899E+03
TPP3: .0000E+00
CPP3: -.1086E+03
SOLT: .2950E+03
SOLW: .3296E+03
T02M: .2965E+03
RH2M: .3377E+02
U10M: .9365E+00
V10M: .2578E+01
P10M: .3125E+03
PRSS: .8361E+03
WESD: .0000E+00
CSNO: .0000E+00
CICE: .0000E+00
CFZR: .0000E+00
CRAI: .0000E+00
LHTF: .0000E+00
SHTF: -.1573E+02
USTR: .2878E+00
VSBY: .2003E+05
RGHS: .8437E+00
LCLD: .0000E+00
MCLD: .2502E+00
HCLD: .0000E+00
TCLD: .2502E+00
DSWF: .0000E+00
WTMP: .2899E+03
CAPE: .0000E+00
CINH: -.8163E+02
LISD: .2770E+03
LIB4: .1566E+01
PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD
HPA M C C DEG M/S
E = Estimated Surface Height
836. 1632.E 23.3 6.5 195.9 2.7
825. 1749. 25.6 6.2 217.4 4.5
800. 2020. 26.7 4.2 254.1 3.7
775. 2299. 25.3 2.5 249.4 2.9
750. 2585. 23.5 -1.8 259.6 1.9
725. 2879. 21.1 -2.5 274.5 1.1
700. 3181. 18.4 -4.3 287.2 .5
650. 3808. 13.3 -12.1 177.6 1.2
600. 4473. 7.4 -15.5 137.9 2.3
550. 5181. 1.5 -18.3 123.8 3.3
500. 5938. -5.0 -22.0 115.3 5.2
450. 6755. -10.9 -28.7 129.2 4.7
400. 7651. -15.8 -43.1 151.4 3.6
350. 8641. -24.1 -46.2 196.7 1.1
300. 9744. -33.0 -44.4 320.6 4.2
250. 10999. -42.9 -51.5 334.1 7.2
200. 12472. -51.4 -75.4 62.4 2.7
150. 14297. -60.6 -76.3 97.3 3.8
100. 16770. -66.8 -78.8 66.9 2.5
50. 20987. -61.4 -89.8 97.6 8.0
HEIGHT DT/DZ TDIFF CRITICAL INVERSION
1632. -.001 -.3
1749. .030 3.6 ****
2020. .015 4.0 ****
2299. .005 1.4
2585. .004 1.0
2879. .002 .5
3181. .001 .4
3808. .002 1.0
4473. .001 .8
5181. .002 1.1
5938. .002 1.1
6755. .003 2.6
7651. .005 4.9 ****
8641. .002 1.8
9744. .002 2.5
10999. .003 3.4
12472. .006 9.2 ****
14297. .008 14.3 ****
16770. .013 32.9 ****
20987. .024 99.9 ****
---end raw data---
Balloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________
Flight Prediction
Wednesday, July 26, 2006 EOSS-109 NAM-40_06_07_29_1200Z.dat
11:12:07 PM Deer Trail wbaltrak.ini
__________________________________________________________________________
Winds DataFile
-----------------------
Station: DEN
Date: 1200Z 29 07 2006
DataFile Status: Intact
Intact Records: 20
Corrupt Records: 0
Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
Reference Site: Punkin Center
Latitude: 38.8521° lat.
Longitude: -103.7005° long.
X_Offset: 51.50
Y_Offset: 5.50
Grid Origin
Latitude: 38.7724° lat.
Longitude: -104.6583° long.
Launch Site - Deer Trail
-----------------------
Launch Point: 39.6114° lat. -104.0426° long.
Grid: X=32.75 Y=57.93
Ascent Rate: 1100 feet per minute
Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute
Altitude: 5205 feet
VOR Station - Denver CO
-----------------------
Latitude: 39.8125° lat.
Longitude: -104.6607° long.
Magnetic Offset: -11.0° from True Degrees
Maximums Enroute
-----------------------
Distance to LOS: 403.1 Mi.
Maximum Range: 13.3 Mi.
Maximum Winds: 18.0 mph from 98° at 68,855 feet altitude
Burst Data
-----------------------
Burst Point: 39.6177° lat. -104.2278° long.
Grid: X=22.9 Y=58.4
Burst Time: 81.6 minutes
Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet
Burst Bearing: 272.6°
Burst Range: 9.9 Mi.
Predicted Landing Site
-----------------------
Landing Point: 39.624° lat. -104.2843° long.
Grid: X=19.9 Y=58.8
Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight Time: 123 Minutes
Bearing: 274.0° True
Range: 12.9 Mi.
__________________________________________________________________________
Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR
Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM Latitude Longitude to LOS Mag NM ID
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
< 1 5255 16 1 64 1100 39.6114 -104.0425 10 102 31 DEN
< 1 5738 16 1 64 1100 39.6120 -104.0423 31 102 31 DEN
1 6627 31 1 56 1100 39.6136 -104.0408 51 101 31 DEN
2 7543 47 1 58 1100 39.6140 -104.0388 65 101 31 DEN
3 8481 53 1 60 1100 39.6145 -104.0373 77 101 31 DEN
4 9446 56 1 63 1100 39.6146 -104.0362 88 101 31 DEN
5 10436 59 1 66 1100 39.6146 -104.0356 97 101 31 DEN
7 12493 62 1 72 1100 39.6145 -104.0351 115 101 31 DEN
9 14675 52 1 74 1100 39.6159 -104.0351 131 101 31 DEN
11 16998 32 1 77 1100 39.6178 -104.0373 146 101 31 DEN
13 19482 6 1 78 1100 39.6199 -104.0414 161 101 31 DEN
15 22162 334 1 75 1100 39.6229 -104.0498 175 101 30 DEN
18 25102 325 1 70 1100 39.6274 -104.0569 190 101 30 DEN
21 28350 327 2 68 1100 39.6324 -104.0605 205 100 30 DEN
24 31969 329 2 70 1100 39.6339 -104.0599 220 100 30 DEN
28 36086 333 1 78 1100 39.6276 -104.0533 236 100 30 DEN
32 40919 320 1 89 1100 39.6123 -104.0436 254 102 31 DEN
38 46906 251 1 86 1100 39.6086 -104.0526 275 102 31 DEN
45 55020 268 2 80 1100 39.6106 -104.0733 300 103 30 DEN
58 68855 259 3 77 1100 39.6035 -104.0950 339 104 29 DEN
82 95000 273 10 60 1100 39.6177 -104.2278 403 109 23 DEN
88 68855 273 12 46 4392 39.6212 -104.2610 340 111 22 DEN
92 55020 272 12 38 3157 39.6187 -104.2686 301 112 22 DEN
95 46906 273 13 32 2600 39.6195 -104.2773 275 112 21 DEN
98 40919 272 13 28 2253 39.6177 -104.2817 255 113 21 DEN
100 36086 269 12 25 2007 39.6094 -104.2764 237 113 22 DEN
102 31969 268 12 22 1822 39.6056 -104.2724 221 114 22 DEN
105 28350 269 12 20 1678 39.6066 -104.2720 206 113 22 DEN
107 25102 270 12 17 1562 39.6101 -104.2745 191 113 22 DEN
109 22162 271 13 14 1466 39.6134 -104.2799 176 113 21 DEN
111 19482 271 13 12 1386 39.6158 -104.2865 162 113 21 DEN
112 16998 272 13 10 1316 39.6176 -104.2900 147 113 21 DEN
114 14675 272 13 8 1256 39.6192 -104.2919 132 113 21 DEN
116 12493 273 13 6 1203 39.6205 -104.2920 116 113 21 DEN
118 10436 273 13 4 1155 39.6204 -104.2914 99 113 21 DEN
119 9446 273 13 3 1133 39.6204 -104.2909 90 113 21 DEN
120 8481 273 13 3 1112 39.6205 -104.2898 79 113 21 DEN
121 7543 273 13 2 1093 39.6210 -104.2883 68 113 21 DEN
121 6627 273 13 1 1074 39.6214 -104.2863 54 112 21 DEN
122 5738 274 13 1 1056 39.6231 -104.2847 37 112 21 DEN
123 5000 274 13 -1 1041 39.6240 -104.2843 1 112 21 DEN
AFWA 45 KM
Raw Data
YR: 2006 MON: 07 DAY: 29 HOUR: 12 AT POSITION: 80.6 73.0 LAT.: 39.87 LON.:-104.67 ELEV: 1656 m
MSLP: .1004E+04
T02M: .2932E+03
TPP3: .0000E+00
RH2M: .5311E+02
U10M: .2879E+01
V10M: .1444E+01
PRSS: .8325E+03
CSNO: .0000E+00
CICE: .0000E+00
CFZR: .0000E+00
CRAI: .0000E+00
VSBY: .4020E+05
PTYP: .0000E+00
TCLD: .0000E+00
SHGT: .1677E+04
PBLH: .1268E+03
SHTF: -.9113E+01
PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD
HPA M C C DEG M/S
E = Estimated Surface Height
832. 1677. 20.1 10.3 237.2 3.2
800. 2010. 22.5 7.4 230.5 2.9
750. 2570. 19.4 5.4 149.4 1.3
700. 3159. 15.1 2.4 44.3 2.8
650. 3782. 10.4 -2.7 33.3 5.8
600. 4443. 6.1 -12.2 39.5 5.4
550. 5150. 1.1 -19.7 81.7 3.7
500. 5908. -4.3 -28.0 101.4 5.0
450. 6728. -10.4 -38.0 106.0 5.0
400. 7623. -17.1 -46.0 110.8 4.5
350. 8611. -24.3 -46.4 144.7 3.3
300. 9715. -32.9 -44.9 188.6 4.2
250. 10972. -42.4 -53.7 197.4 5.6
200. 12445. -52.7 -65.7 197.6 4.2
150. 14262. -61.7 -72.0 194.9 3.7
100. 16714. -71.1 -78.8 190.9 3.4
50. 20758. -74.4 -80.5 201.7 5.0
HEIGHT DT/DZ TDIFF CRITICAL INVERSION
1677. .001 .6
2010. .018 6.1 ****
2570. .004 2.5
3159. .003 1.6
3782. .002 1.5
4443. .004 2.4
5150. .003 2.2
5908. .003 2.4
6728. .003 2.4
7623. .003 2.5
8611. .003 3.2
9715. .003 3.0
10972. .003 3.9
12445. .004 6.4
14262. .008 14.4 ****
16714. .011 26.4 ****
20758. .019 77.6 ****
---end raw data---
Balloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.5
__________________________________________________________________________
Flight Prediction
Wednesday, July 26, 2006 EOSS-109 AFWA-45_06_07_29_1200Z.dat
11:16:36 PM Deer Trail wbaltrak.ini
__________________________________________________________________________
Winds DataFile
-----------------------
Station: DEN
Date: 1200Z 29 07 2006
DataFile Status: Intact
Intact Records: 17
Corrupt Records: 0
Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
Reference Site: Punkin Center
Latitude: 38.8521° lat.
Longitude: -103.7005° long.
X_Offset: 51.50
Y_Offset: 5.50
Grid Origin
Latitude: 38.7724° lat.
Longitude: -104.6583° long.
Launch Site - Deer Trail
-----------------------
Launch Point: 39.6114° lat. -104.0426° long.
Grid: X=32.75 Y=57.93
Ascent Rate: 1100 feet per minute
Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute
Altitude: 5205 feet
VOR Station - Denver CO
-----------------------
Latitude: 39.8125° lat.
Longitude: -104.6607° long.
Magnetic Offset: -11.0° from True Degrees
Maximums Enroute
-----------------------
Distance to LOS: 403.1 Mi.
Maximum Range: 12.8 Mi.
Maximum Winds: 13.0 mph from 33° at 12,408 feet altitude
Burst Data
-----------------------
Burst Point: 39.7422° lat. -104.0324° long.
Grid: X=33.2 Y=67.0
Burst Time: 81.6 minutes
Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet
Burst Bearing: 3.4°
Burst Range: 9.0 Mi.
Predicted Landing Site
-----------------------
Landing Point: 39.789° lat. -104.0472° long.
Grid: X=32.4 Y=70.2
Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight Time: 123 Minutes
Bearing: 358.8° True
Range: 12.3 Mi.
__________________________________________________________________________
Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR
Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM Latitude Longitude to LOS Mag NM ID
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
< 1 5255 57 1 61 1100 39.6114 -104.0425 10 102 31 DEN
1 6594 57 1 61 1100 39.6125 -104.0402 50 102 31 DEN
3 8432 53 1 63 1100 39.6141 -104.0378 76 101 31 DEN
5 10364 38 1 71 1100 39.6152 -104.0387 97 101 31 DEN
7 12408 31 1 84 1100 39.6132 -104.0411 114 101 31 DEN
9 14577 214 1 81 1100 39.6081 -104.0455 130 102 31 DEN
11 16896 218 1 72 1100 39.6034 -104.0506 145 103 31 DEN
13 19383 231 1 71 1100 39.6028 -104.0562 160 103 31 DEN
15 22073 246 1 68 1100 39.6040 -104.0645 175 103 30 DEN
18 25010 257 2 66 1100 39.6060 -104.0733 189 103 30 DEN
21 28251 265 2 64 1100 39.6085 -104.0819 204 103 29 DEN
24 31873 273 2 65 1100 39.6131 -104.0861 220 103 29 DEN
28 35997 287 2 68 1100 39.6211 -104.0844 236 102 29 DEN
32 40830 309 3 70 1100 39.6343 -104.0792 254 101 29 DEN
38 46791 324 3 70 1100 39.6455 -104.0745 274 99 29 DEN
45 54836 336 4 69 1100 39.6591 -104.0697 300 97 29 DEN
57 68104 347 5 67 1100 39.6820 -104.0640 337 95 29 DEN
82 95000 3 9 62 1100 39.7422 -104.0324 403 87 29 DEN
88 68104 5 10 49 4315 39.7575 -104.0243 338 85 30 DEN
92 54836 6 11 41 3143 39.7655 -104.0223 300 84 30 DEN
95 46791 6 11 35 2593 39.7713 -104.0202 275 84 30 DEN
98 40830 7 11 30 2248 39.7768 -104.0179 255 83 30 DEN
100 35997 7 12 26 2002 39.7840 -104.0150 237 82 30 DEN
103 31873 7 12 22 1818 39.7889 -104.0140 221 82 30 DEN
105 28251 6 13 19 1674 39.7919 -104.0168 205 81 30 DEN
107 25010 5 13 16 1559 39.7937 -104.0229 190 81 29 DEN
109 22073 3 13 14 1463 39.7952 -104.0295 176 81 29 DEN
111 19383 2 13 12 1383 39.7962 -104.0361 161 81 29 DEN
113 16896 1 13 10 1314 39.7957 -104.0408 147 81 29 DEN
114 14577 359 12 8 1253 39.7915 -104.0453 132 81 28 DEN
116 12408 358 12 6 1201 39.7868 -104.0493 116 82 28 DEN
118 10364 358 12 5 1153 39.7849 -104.0517 99 82 28 DEN
120 8432 357 12 3 1111 39.7860 -104.0525 79 82 28 DEN
121 6594 358 12 1 1073 39.7876 -104.0500 54 82 28 DEN
123 5000 359 12 -1 1041 39.7890 -104.0472 1 82 28 DEN
| 
