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Confidence Levels (Average)
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Minor discrepancies in models |
Looking at these maps, the three tracks essentially follow the same zig zag path to the north. The first two (GFS and NAM) are in quite close agreement vector and range. While the models are not in exact agreement, this is an example of what I call minor discrepancies. This is also probably the worst case scenario for an AVERAGE confidence level assignment. A little more difference between the AFWA and the first two and I'd move the confidence level down to MEDIUM.
Maps
Here are three predictions made at the same time on maps showing a track for the same date and time in the future.
| Date Prediction Made | July 28, 2006 19:00 UTC |
| Date of Flight (actually the UTC time of the model's prediction) | July 29, 2006 12:00 UTC |
GFS Short Range Prediction
NAM 12 KM
AFWA 15 KM
Raw Data and Prediction Output
GFS Short
Raw Data
YR: 2006 MON: 07 DAY: 15 HOUR: 12 AT POSITION: 104.6 76.0 LAT.: 39.87 LON.:-104.67 ELEV: 1656 m PRSS: .8223E+03 MSLP: .1020E+04 TPP6: .0000E+00 UMOF: -.1220E+00 VMOF: -.8887E-01 SHTF: -.7144E+02 DSWF: .0000E+00 RH2M: .4698E+02 U10M: .2810E+01 V10M: .6800E+00 T02M: .2908E+03 TCLD: .6499E+00 SHGT: .1839E+04 CAPE: .0000E+00 CINH: .0000E+00 LISD: .2768E+03 LIB4: .1496E+01 PBLH: .1695E+03 PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 822. 1839. 17.6 6.2 231.7 2.9 800. 2075. 22.5 4.5 230.8 6.0 750. 2633. 20.2 .1 240.2 3.6 700. 3223. 17.4 -5.0 220.9 1.2 650. 3849. 12.1 -8.6 144.0 .5 600. 4512. 6.3 -15.6 50.6 1.2 550. 5217. .1 -19.0 24.1 3.6 500. 5971. -6.2 -27.0 32.6 3.3 450. 6785. -12.0 -36.9 30.4 4.5 400. 7674. -18.5 -47.0 36.4 4.3 350. 8655. -26.2 -51.9 24.7 6.0 300. 9751. -34.1 -59.2 17.6 7.2 250. 11003. -42.5 -59.0 22.9 13.2 200. 12475. -52.9 -64.1 16.9 16.3 150. 14284. -62.8 -78.1 8.2 9.4 100. 16749. -67.4 -103.1 272.2 .7 50. 20986. -60.0 -273.1 91.3 7.8 20. 26887. -49.5 -273.1 92.1 17.1 HEIGHT DT/DZ TDIFF CRITICAL INVERSION 1839. .002 1.2 2075. .032 7.6 **** 2633. .006 3.4 **** 3223. .005 3.2 **** 3849. .002 1.0 4512. .001 .7 5217. .001 .7 5971. .002 1.3 6785. .003 2.7 7674. .003 2.8 8655. .003 2.5 9751. .003 3.8 11003. .004 5.6 12475. .004 6.1 14284. .007 12.9 **** 16749. .014 35.4 **** 20986. .025 **** **** 26887. .031 **** ****---end raw data---
Balloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.5 __________________________________________________________________________ Flight Prediction Friday, July 28, 2006 EOSS-109 GFS-Short_06_07_29_1200Z.dat 7:37:06 PM Genoa CO wbaltrak.ini __________________________________________________________________________ Winds DataFile ----------------------- Station: DEN Date: 1200Z 29 07 2006 DataFile Status: Intact Intact Records: 18 Corrupt Records: 0 Grid Placement Data ----------------------- Reference Site: Punkin Center Latitude: 38.8521� lat. Longitude: -103.7005� long. X_Offset: 51.50 Y_Offset: 5.50 Grid Origin Latitude: 38.7724� lat. Longitude: -104.6583� long. Launch Site - Genoa CO ----------------------- Launch Point: 39.2788� lat. -103.4899� long. Grid: X=62.44 Y=34.96 Ascent Rate: 1100 feet per minute Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute Altitude: 5589 feet VOR Station - Denver CO ----------------------- Latitude: 39.8125� lat. Longitude: -104.6607� long. Magnetic Offset: -11.0� from True Degrees Maximums Enroute ----------------------- Distance to LOS: 402.3 Mi. Maximum Range: 16.1 Mi. Maximum Winds: 32.0 mph from 80� at 88,278 feet altitude Burst Data ----------------------- Burst Point: 39.4046� lat. -103.6105� long. Grid: X=55.9 Y=43.6 Burst Time: 81.3 minutes Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet Burst Bearing: 323.5� Burst Range: 10.8 Mi. Predicted Landing Site ----------------------- Landing Point: 39.4813� lat. -103.6397� long. Grid: X=54.3 Y=48.9 Altitude: 5000 feet Flight Time: 122 Minutes Bearing: 330.3� True Range: 16.1 Mi. __________________________________________________________________________ Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM Latitude Longitude to LOS Mag NM ID ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- < 1 5639 18 1 72 1100 39.2789 -103.4899 10 109 63 DEN < 1 6572 18 1 72 1100 39.2796 -103.4896 42 109 63 DEN 3 8392 18 1 56 1100 39.2838 -103.4878 71 109 63 DEN 4 10318 17 1 53 1100 39.2883 -103.4862 93 109 63 DEN 6 12365 18 1 54 1100 39.2916 -103.4844 111 108 63 DEN 8 14541 15 1 60 1100 39.2923 -103.4853 127 108 63 DEN 10 16867 3 1 68 1100 39.2916 -103.4891 143 109 63 DEN 13 19360 335 1 71 1100 39.2904 -103.4968 158 109 62 DEN 15 22057 313 1 69 1100 39.2908 -103.5067 173 109 62 DEN 18 25000 309 2 63 1100 39.2958 -103.5174 187 109 61 DEN 21 28251 315 3 57 1100 39.3076 -103.5277 203 109 61 DEN 24 31903 326 4 54 1100 39.3221 -103.5281 218 108 60 DEN 28 36060 338 4 53 1100 39.3363 -103.5202 235 107 60 DEN 32 40886 350 5 52 1100 39.3534 -103.5065 253 106 60 DEN 37 46814 360 7 50 1100 39.3748 -103.4905 273 105 60 DEN 45 54905 8 8 48 1100 39.3978 -103.4689 299 103 60 DEN 58 68917 7 10 51 1100 39.4162 -103.4680 339 102 60 DEN 75 88278 341 10 58 1100 39.4128 -103.5504 387 104 57 DEN 81 95000 323 11 57 1100 39.4046 -103.6105 402 105 54 DEN 82 88278 321 11 55 6924 39.4033 -103.6201 388 106 54 DEN 87 68917 317 12 46 4399 39.4024 -103.6407 340 106 53 DEN 91 54905 318 12 38 3148 39.4089 -103.6404 301 106 53 DEN 94 46814 322 12 32 2594 39.4186 -103.6313 275 105 53 DEN 97 40886 326 13 28 2251 39.4291 -103.6235 255 104 53 DEN 99 36060 329 13 24 2005 39.4385 -103.6159 237 104 53 DEN 102 31903 331 13 20 1819 39.4471 -103.6112 221 103 53 DEN 104 28251 332 14 17 1674 39.4566 -103.6114 205 102 53 DEN 106 25000 332 15 14 1558 39.4649 -103.6187 190 102 52 DEN 108 22057 331 15 12 1463 39.4687 -103.6268 176 102 52 DEN 110 19360 330 15 10 1382 39.4690 -103.6347 161 102 52 DEN 112 16867 328 15 8 1313 39.4680 -103.6412 147 102 51 DEN 114 14541 328 15 6 1253 39.4673 -103.6445 131 102 51 DEN 115 12365 328 15 5 1200 39.4680 -103.6453 115 102 51 DEN 117 10318 328 16 3 1152 39.4712 -103.6437 98 102 51 DEN 119 8392 329 16 2 1110 39.4756 -103.6420 78 102 51 DEN 121 6572 330 16 1 1073 39.4799 -103.6402 53 102 51 DEN 122 5000 330 16 -1 1041 39.4813 -103.6397 1 102 51 DEN
NAM 12 KM
Raw Data
YR: 2006 MON: 07 DAY: 29 HOUR: 12 AT POSITION: 277.6209.0 LAT.: 39.87 LON.:-104.67 ELEV: 1656 m SHGT: .1607E+04 MSLP: .1005E+04 TPP3: .0000E+00 CPP3: .0000E+00 T02M: .2967E+03 RH2M: .3496E+02 U10M: -.9224E-01 V10M: .2439E+01 PRSS: .8358E+03 LHTF: .0000E+00 SHTF: -.9751E+01 USTR: .2326E+00 RGHS: .7500E+00 DSWF: .0000E+00 PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 836. 1607. 23.5 7.2 173.7 2.4 825. 1726. 23.9 6.6 179.5 5.3 800. 1995. 24.6 4.0 197.7 6.6 775. 2273. 23.7 -.6 189.3 5.5 750. 2557. 21.5 -1.2 192.9 4.8 725. 2849. 19.4 -2.7 195.3 3.2 700. 3149. 17.1 -4.0 191.9 2.1 650. 3774. 12.4 -14.1 189.6 2.1 600. 4439. 7.6 -17.8 120.6 4.0 550. 5147. 2.0 -19.6 103.8 6.6 500. 5907. -3.6 -22.4 109.1 3.7 450. 6729. -9.2 -26.1 128.4 6.6 400. 7627. -16.6 -23.2 140.9 10.9 350. 8616. -22.7 -25.0 171.1 7.0 300. 9730. -30.1 -32.8 181.0 5.5 250. 11003. -40.0 -43.3 202.5 7.2 200. 12482. -53.0 -57.0 216.7 11.9 150. 14293. -60.6 -72.8 192.9 4.9 100. 16772. -67.0 -82.8 163.5 4.2 50. 20980. -61.0 -89.5 99.9 8.0 HEIGHT DT/DZ TDIFF CRITICAL INVERSION 1607. .002 .6 1726. .013 1.5 1995. .013 3.6 **** 2273. .007 2.0 2557. .002 .6 2849. .003 .7 3149. .002 .7 3774. .003 1.6 4439. .003 1.9 5147. .002 1.6 5907. .003 2.1 6729. .004 3.0 7627. .002 1.7 8616. .005 4.8 9730. .004 4.8 11003. .003 3.6 12482. .002 2.2 14293. .009 16.8 **** 16772. .013 32.5 **** 20980. .024 **** ****---end raw data---
Balloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.5 __________________________________________________________________________ Flight Prediction Friday, July 28, 2006 EOSS-109 NAM-12_06_07_29_1200Z.dat 7:06:11 PM Genoa CO wbaltrak.ini __________________________________________________________________________ Winds DataFile ----------------------- Station: DEN Date: 1200Z 29 07 2006 DataFile Status: Intact Intact Records: 20 Corrupt Records: 0 Grid Placement Data ----------------------- Reference Site: Punkin Center Latitude: 38.8521� lat. Longitude: -103.7005� long. X_Offset: 51.50 Y_Offset: 5.50 Grid Origin Latitude: 38.7724� lat. Longitude: -104.6583� long. Launch Site - Genoa CO ----------------------- Launch Point: 39.2788� lat. -103.4899� long. Grid: X=62.44 Y=34.96 Ascent Rate: 1100 feet per minute Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute Altitude: 5589 feet VOR Station - Denver CO ----------------------- Latitude: 39.8125� lat. Longitude: -104.6607� long. Magnetic Offset: -11.0� from True Degrees Maximums Enroute ----------------------- Distance to LOS: 402.3 Mi. Maximum Range: 21. Mi. Maximum Winds: 27.0 mph from 217� at 40,951 feet altitude Burst Data ----------------------- Burst Point: 39.4507� lat. -103.6334� long. Grid: X=54.6 Y=46.8 Burst Time: 81.3 minutes Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet Burst Bearing: 327.2� Burst Range: 14.1 Mi. Predicted Landing Site ----------------------- Landing Point: 39.544� lat. -103.682� long. Grid: X=52.0 Y=53.3 Altitude: 5000 feet Flight Time: 122 Minutes Bearing: 330.8� True Range: 21.0 Mi. __________________________________________________________________________ Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM Latitude Longitude to LOS Mag NM ID ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- < 1 5639 354 1 68 1100 39.2789 -103.4899 10 109 63 DEN 8 14000 11 1 56 1100 39.2942 -103.4861 123 108 63 DEN 17 24000 325 2 58 1100 39.3045 -103.5135 183 109 61 DEN 36 45000 353 7 47 1100 39.3785 -103.5063 267 105 59 DEN 49 60000 358 9 47 1100 39.4161 -103.4954 314 102 59 DEN 81 95000 327 14 50 1100 39.4507 -103.6334 402 103 52 DEN 90 60000 323 16 33 3556 39.4603 -103.6684 315 103 50 DEN 95 45000 326 16 24 2484 39.4757 -103.6634 269 102 50 DEN 107 24000 331 19 10 1525 39.5194 -103.6635 185 100 49 DEN 114 14000 329 20 4 1239 39.5277 -103.6858 128 99 48 DEN 122 5000 331 21 -1 1041 39.5440 -103.6820 1 98 48 DEN
AFWA 15 KM
Raw Data
YR: 2006 MON: 07 DAY: 29 HOUR: 12 AT POSITION: 141.8115.9 LAT.: 39.87 LON.:-104.67 ELEV: 1656 m MSLP: .1003E+04 T02M: .2932E+03 TPP3: .0000E+00 RH2M: .5023E+02 U10M: .1572E+01 V10M: .3350E+01 PRSS: .8379E+03 CSNO: .0000E+00 CICE: .0000E+00 CFZR: .0000E+00 CRAI: .0000E+00 VSBY: .4040E+05 PTYP: .0000E+00 TCLD: .2983E+02 SHGT: .1604E+04 PBLH: .1084E+03 SHTF: -.1832E+02PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height838. 1604. 20.0 9.3 198.9 3.7 800. 2003. 23.7 5.6 220.1 1.9 750. 2563. 20.2 2.3 156.3 1.2 700. 3153. 15.8 -3.9 160.8 1.7 650. 3778. 12.3 -11.4 144.7 1.8 600. 4443. 7.2 -13.8 124.5 3.6 550. 5151. 1.9 -21.7 124.2 5.0 500. 5911. -3.8 -26.0 124.4 6.4 450. 6733. -10.1 -35.7 127.6 8.8 400. 7629. -16.7 -36.5 144.0 9.0 350. 8620. -22.7 -28.0 170.8 5.5 300. 9734. -30.7 -37.4 241.4 6.4 250. 11000. -41.9 -47.5 228.0 10.0 200. 12467. -54.1 -58.6 223.9 9.3 150. 14274. -62.5 -74.6 209.8 5.4 100. 16731. -69.3 -83.1 177.6 2.2 50. 20865. -69.4 -82.7 148.1 4.6HEIGHT DT/DZ TDIFF CRITICAL INVERSION 1604. .002 .7 2003. .020 8.1 **** 2563. .004 2.0 3153. .003 1.5 3778. .005 2.8 4443. .002 1.6 5151. .003 1.9 5911. .003 2.1 6733. .003 2.1 7629. .003 2.7 8620. .005 4.8 9734. .004 4.0 11000. .001 1.6 12467. .002 3.3 14274. .008 15.3 **** 16731. .013 31.3 **** 20865. .021 86.1 ****---end raw data---Balloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.5 __________________________________________________________________________ Flight Prediction Friday, July 28, 2006 EOSS-109 AFWA-15_06_07_29_1200Z.dat 7:36:55 PM Genoa CO wbaltrak.ini __________________________________________________________________________ Winds DataFile ----------------------- Station: DEN Date: 1200Z 29 07 2006 DataFile Status: Intact Intact Records: 17 Corrupt Records: 0 Grid Placement Data ----------------------- Reference Site: Punkin Center Latitude: 38.8521� lat. Longitude: -103.7005� long. X_Offset: 51.50 Y_Offset: 5.50 Grid Origin Latitude: 38.7724� lat. Longitude: -104.6583� long. Launch Site - Genoa CO ----------------------- Launch Point: 39.2788� lat. -103.4899� long. Grid: X=62.44 Y=34.96 Ascent Rate: 1100 feet per minute Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute Altitude: 5589 feet VOR Station - Denver CO ----------------------- Latitude: 39.8125� lat. Longitude: -104.6607� long. Magnetic Offset: -11.0� from True Degrees Maximums Enroute ----------------------- Distance to LOS: 402.3 Mi. Maximum Range: 17.6 Mi. Maximum Winds: 22.0 mph from 228� at 36,089 feet altitude Burst Data ----------------------- Burst Point: 39.4494� lat. -103.5019� long. Grid: X=61.7 Y=46.7 Burst Time: 81.3 minutes Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet Burst Bearing: 356.9� Burst Range: 11.8 Mi. Predicted Landing Site ----------------------- Landing Point: 39.5336� lat. -103.5087� long. Grid: X=61.2 Y=52.6 Altitude: 5000 feet Flight Time: 123 Minutes Bearing: 356.7� True Range: 17.6 Mi. __________________________________________________________________________ Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM Latitude Longitude to LOS Mag NM ID ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- < 1 5639 19 1 57 1100 39.2789 -103.4899 10 109 63 DEN < 1 6572 19 1 57 1100 39.2805 -103.4892 42 109 63 DEN 3 8409 29 1 67 1100 39.2817 -103.4879 71 109 63 DEN 4 10344 15 1 72 1100 39.2829 -103.4885 93 109 63 DEN 6 12395 5 1 73 1100 39.2846 -103.4893 111 109 63 DEN 8 14577 355 1 73 1100 39.2861 -103.4907 128 109 63 DEN 10 16900 337 1 71 1100 39.2884 -103.4951 143 109 62 DEN 13 19393 325 1 67 1100 39.2918 -103.5015 158 109 62 DEN 15 22090 318 2 62 1100 39.2964 -103.5104 173 109 62 DEN 18 25030 314 3 56 1100 39.3043 -103.5236 188 109 61 DEN 21 28281 317 3 51 1100 39.3159 -103.5344 203 108 60 DEN 24 31936 322 4 51 1100 39.3254 -103.5363 218 108 60 DEN 28 36089 335 4 55 1100 39.3316 -103.5219 235 107 60 DEN 32 40902 354 5 55 1100 39.3471 -103.4996 253 106 61 DEN 37 46831 7 6 52 1100 39.3668 -103.4750 273 105 61 DEN 45 54892 12 8 51 1100 39.3852 -103.4613 299 103 61 DEN 57 68455 10 9 54 1100 39.4000 -103.4620 337 103 61 DEN 81 95000 357 12 55 1100 39.4494 -103.5019 402 101 58 DEN 87 68455 355 13 43 4351 39.4619 -103.5120 339 100 57 DEN 92 54892 355 13 35 3147 39.4671 -103.5123 300 100 57 DEN 95 46831 356 14 30 2595 39.4749 -103.5064 275 99 57 DEN 97 40902 359 14 25 2252 39.4845 -103.4944 255 99 57 DEN 100 36089 2 15 21 2007 39.4930 -103.4822 237 98 58 DEN 102 31936 3 15 18 1820 39.4968 -103.4734 221 98 58 DEN 104 28281 3 16 15 1675 39.5030 -103.4747 205 97 58 DEN 106 25030 1 16 13 1559 39.5112 -103.4824 190 97 57 DEN 108 22090 360 16 11 1464 39.5171 -103.4923 176 97 57 DEN 110 19393 358 17 9 1383 39.5208 -103.4994 161 97 56 DEN 112 16900 357 17 7 1314 39.5236 -103.5048 147 97 56 DEN 114 14577 357 17 6 1253 39.5256 -103.5086 132 97 56 DEN 116 12395 356 17 4 1200 39.5271 -103.5099 116 96 56 DEN 118 10344 356 17 3 1153 39.5287 -103.5107 98 96 56 DEN 119 8409 356 17 2 1111 39.5299 -103.5113 79 96 56 DEN 121 6572 356 17 1 1073 39.5311 -103.5100 53 96 56 DEN 122 5262 357 18 -1 1046 39.5334 -103.5089 22 96 56 DEN 123 5000 357 18 -1 1041 39.5336 -103.5087 1 96 56 DEN