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Recap of EOSS-96/97On this flight, the prediction was made the evening prior to flight and it turned out to be pretty inaccurate. Just for my own edification, I obtained the actual winds data I would have used Saturday morning to make a prediction just prior to flight. As you will note, even a morning updated forecast wouldn't have made all that much difference. Here is what that prediction would have looked like.
Prediction made with
Balloon Track Full PredictionBalloon Track for Windows Version 1.9.2
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Flight Prediction
Monday, August 08, 2005 EOSS-97 DNR_05_07_30_1200Z.dat
6:33:22 PM Deer Trail wbaltrak.ini
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Winds DataFile
-----------------------
Station: DNR
Date: 1200Z 30 07 05
DataFile Status: Intact
Intact Records: 75
Corrupt Records: 0
Grid Placement Data
-----------------------
Reference Site: Last Chance
Latitude: 39.7407° lat.
Longitude: -103.5936° long.
X_Offset: 55.10
Y_Offset: 62.30
Grid Origin
Latitude: 38.8384° lat.
Longitude: -104.6313° long.
Launch Site - Deer Trail
-----------------------
Launch Point: 39.6114° lat. -104.0426° long.
Grid: X=31.32 Y=53.37
Ascent Rate: 1000 feet per minute
Descent Rate: 950 feet per minute
Altitude: 5205 feet
Maximums Enroute
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Distance to LOS: 403.1 Mi.
Maximum Range: 13.1 Mi.
Maximum Winds: 33.0 mph from 70° at 92,001 feet altitude
Burst Data
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Burst Point: 39.6172° lat. -103.9822° long.
Grid: X=34.5 Y=53.8
Burst Time: 89.8 minutes
Burst Altitude: 95,000 feet
Burst Bearing: 82.8°
Burst Range: 3.2 Mi.
Predicted Landing Site
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Landing Point: 39.6361° lat. -103.881° long.
Grid: X=39.9 Y=55.1
Altitude: 4500 feet
Flight Time: 129 Minutes
Bearing: 78.7° True
Range: 8.8 Mi.
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Bear Rng EL. Vertical Dist. Bearing Range VOR
Time Alt Deg Mi. Deg FPM GridX -Mi.- GridY to LOS Mag NM ID
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
< 1 5255 20 1 58 1000 31.32 53.38 10 89 27 FQF
< 1 5843 20 1 58 1000 31.34 53.44 34 89 27 FQF
< 1 6001 23 1 55 1000 31.36 53.47 38 89 27 FQF
2 7001 31 1 47 1000 31.48 53.65 57 89 27 FQF
3 7999 47 1 46 1000 31.69 53.72 71 89 27 FQF
4 8999 59 1 51 1000 31.81 53.67 83 89 28 FQF
4 9049 59 1 51 1000 31.82 53.67 83 89 28 FQF
5 10000 76 1 54 1000 31.95 53.53 93 89 28 FQF
5 10528 85 1 55 1000 32.03 53.44 98 89 28 FQF
7 12001 102 1 54 1000 32.22 53.18 111 89 28 FQF
9 13999 107 1 53 1000 32.51 53.01 126 90 28 FQF
11 16001 101 2 51 1000 32.97 53.05 140 89 29 FQF
13 17999 98 2 48 1000 33.51 53.05 152 89 29 FQF
14 19521 92 2 48 1000 33.72 53.30 161 89 29 FQF
15 20000 89 2 49 1000 33.79 53.41 164 89 29 FQF
15 20295 88 3 49 1000 33.84 53.48 165 88 29 FQF
16 21677 81 3 48 1000 34.08 53.81 173 88 30 FQF
17 21841 80 3 48 1000 34.12 53.85 174 88 30 FQF
17 22392 78 3 47 1000 34.27 53.98 176 88 30 FQF
18 22999 76 3 46 1000 34.45 54.13 179 87 30 FQF
18 23297 76 3 46 1000 34.55 54.20 181 87 30 FQF
18 23527 75 3 45 1000 34.63 54.26 182 87 30 FQF
19 24524 73 4 44 1000 34.95 54.51 187 87 30 FQF
20 25000 71 4 43 1000 35.12 54.67 189 86 30 FQF
20 25066 71 4 43 1000 35.14 54.69 190 86 30 FQF
21 25804 69 4 42 1000 35.39 54.94 193 86 31 FQF
22 27136 66 5 40 1000 35.78 55.37 199 85 31 FQF
22 27464 65 5 40 1000 35.86 55.46 201 85 31 FQF
23 27995 64 5 40 1000 35.97 55.60 203 85 31 FQF
24 29226 62 6 39 1000 36.21 55.94 208 84 31 FQF
25 29721 62 6 39 1000 36.28 56.04 211 84 31 FQF
25 30000 61 6 39 1000 36.31 56.10 212 84 31 FQF
27 31857 59 6 40 1000 36.51 56.45 220 83 31 FQF
30 35000 59 7 40 1000 37.10 56.79 232 83 32 FQF
31 35958 61 7 40 1000 37.30 56.75 236 83 32 FQF
31 36001 61 7 40 1000 37.31 56.75 236 83 32 FQF
32 37028 62 7 40 1000 37.55 56.66 240 83 32 FQF
33 38615 64 7 40 1000 38.00 56.58 246 254 32 TXC
34 38999 65 8 40 1000 38.13 56.59 247 254 32 TXC
35 40200 66 8 40 1000 38.56 56.67 252 254 32 TXC
36 40715 66 8 39 1000 38.75 56.68 254 254 32 TXC
38 42799 68 9 39 1000 39.51 56.68 261 254 31 TXC
38 42999 68 9 39 1000 39.61 56.65 262 254 31 TXC
41 46654 75 10 37 1000 41.39 56.00 274 253 30 TXC
42 47001 76 11 37 1000 41.53 55.96 275 252 29 TXC
45 50000 79 12 36 1000 42.79 55.62 285 252 28 TXC
47 52001 82 12 36 1000 43.36 55.05 291 250 28 TXC
48 53392 83 12 37 1000 43.47 54.75 295 250 28 TXC
49 53999 84 12 37 1000 43.49 54.70 297 250 28 TXC
50 54724 84 12 37 1000 43.52 54.72 299 250 28 TXC
50 55000 84 12 37 1000 43.55 54.73 300 250 28 TXC
51 56010 83 12 38 1000 43.67 54.79 303 250 28 TXC
52 57001 83 13 38 1000 43.82 54.84 306 250 28 TXC
53 58428 83 13 38 1000 44.12 54.92 310 250 27 TXC
56 60801 82 13 39 1000 44.25 55.25 317 251 27 TXC
57 61811 82 13 39 1000 44.20 55.27 320 251 27 TXC
58 63675 82 13 40 1000 44.17 55.26 325 251 27 TXC
60 65020 82 13 41 1000 44.06 55.24 329 251 27 TXC
62 66762 82 13 42 1000 43.87 55.18 334 251 28 TXC
63 68635 82 12 44 1000 43.57 55.10 339 251 28 TXC
64 68999 82 12 44 1000 43.48 55.08 340 251 28 TXC
65 70000 82 12 45 1000 43.23 55.01 342 250 28 TXC
71 75794 83 10 53 1000 41.36 54.52 357 250 30 TXC
73 77999 82 9 56 1000 40.63 54.61 363 250 30 TXC
74 79265 81 9 57 1000 40.23 54.72 366 251 31 TXC
76 81001 80 8 59 1000 39.65 54.77 370 251 31 TXC
77 82543 80 8 61 1000 39.22 54.70 374 251 32 TXC
80 85000 80 7 64 1000 38.53 54.60 380 251 32 TXC
83 87927 80 6 68 1000 37.66 54.52 387 86 33 FQF
85 90000 79 6 70 1000 36.90 54.46 392 86 32 FQF
87 92001 79 5 73 1000 36.08 54.31 396 87 31 FQF
87 92326 79 5 74 1000 35.91 54.25 397 87 31 FQF
90 95000 83 3 79 1000 34.52 53.78 403 88 30 FQF
90 92326 84 3 80 7601 34.34 53.71 399 88 30 FQF
90 92001 84 3 80 7545 34.32 53.71 398 88 30 FQF
90 90000 84 3 80 7205 34.21 53.69 393 88 30 FQF
91 87927 84 3 80 6868 34.10 53.68 389 88 30 FQF
91 85000 84 3 80 6418 33.96 53.66 382 88 29 FQF
92 82543 84 3 80 6062 33.85 53.65 376 88 29 FQF
92 81001 84 2 80 5848 33.77 53.63 372 88 29 FQF
92 79265 83 2 80 5615 33.67 53.64 368 88 29 FQF
92 77999 83 2 81 5451 33.59 53.66 365 88 29 FQF
93 75794 82 2 81 5176 33.45 53.68 359 88 29 FQF
94 70000 83 2 82 4513 33.04 53.57 344 89 29 FQF
94 68999 84 2 82 4407 32.98 53.56 342 89 29 FQF
94 68635 84 2 82 4369 32.96 53.55 341 89 29 FQF
95 66762 84 2 82 4179 32.89 53.53 336 89 29 FQF
95 65020 85 2 82 4009 32.84 53.52 331 89 28 FQF
96 63675 85 2 82 3882 32.82 53.51 327 89 28 FQF
96 61811 85 1 82 3713 32.81 53.51 322 89 28 FQF
96 60801 85 1 82 3624 32.79 53.51 319 89 28 FQF
97 58428 81 2 81 3425 32.83 53.61 312 89 28 FQF
98 57001 81 2 81 3310 32.92 53.63 308 88 29 FQF
98 56010 80 2 80 3232 32.97 53.65 305 88 29 FQF
98 55000 80 2 80 3155 33.01 53.67 302 88 29 FQF
98 54724 80 2 80 3134 33.01 53.67 301 88 29 FQF
99 53999 80 2 79 3081 33.02 53.68 299 88 29 FQF
99 53392 80 2 79 3036 33.03 53.66 297 88 29 FQF
99 52001 84 2 79 2937 33.07 53.56 293 89 29 FQF
100 50000 90 2 77 2800 33.27 53.36 287 89 29 FQF
101 47001 93 2 73 2606 33.76 53.23 277 89 29 FQF
101 46654 94 2 72 2584 33.81 53.21 276 89 29 FQF
103 42999 98 3 65 2368 34.56 52.94 264 89 30 FQF
103 42799 98 3 65 2357 34.60 52.93 263 89 30 FQF
104 40715 97 4 61 2242 34.94 52.93 256 89 30 FQF
104 40200 97 4 61 2214 35.03 52.93 254 89 30 FQF
105 38999 96 4 58 2152 35.23 52.97 250 89 31 FQF
105 38615 96 4 58 2132 35.29 52.97 248 89 31 FQF
106 37028 96 4 55 2052 35.51 52.94 243 89 31 FQF
106 36001 96 4 53 2003 35.63 52.89 239 89 31 FQF
106 35958 96 4 53 2001 35.63 52.89 239 89 31 FQF
107 35000 96 4 52 1955 35.74 52.87 235 89 31 FQF
108 31857 94 5 47 1817 36.06 53.06 223 89 31 FQF
109 30000 91 5 44 1741 36.18 53.26 215 88 31 FQF
109 29721 91 5 44 1730 36.20 53.29 214 88 31 FQF
110 29226 90 5 43 1711 36.23 53.35 212 88 31 FQF
111 27995 88 5 40 1665 36.38 53.55 206 88 32 FQF
111 27464 87 5 39 1645 36.45 53.64 204 88 32 FQF
111 27136 86 5 39 1633 36.49 53.70 202 87 32 FQF
112 25804 84 5 36 1586 36.74 53.96 196 87 32 FQF
112 25066 82 6 34 1561 36.90 54.12 193 87 32 FQF
112 25000 82 6 33 1558 36.91 54.14 193 87 32 FQF
113 24524 81 6 32 1542 37.02 54.24 190 87 32 FQF
113 23527 80 6 30 1509 37.24 54.41 186 86 32 FQF
114 23297 80 6 29 1502 37.29 54.45 184 86 32 FQF
114 22999 79 6 29 1492 37.36 54.49 183 86 32 FQF
114 22392 79 6 27 1473 37.48 54.59 180 86 32 FQF
115 21841 78 6 26 1456 37.58 54.69 177 86 32 FQF
115 21677 78 6 26 1451 37.61 54.71 176 86 32 FQF
116 20295 76 7 23 1409 37.78 54.95 169 85 33 FQF
116 20000 76 7 23 1401 37.82 55.00 167 85 33 FQF
116 19521 75 7 22 1387 37.87 55.07 165 85 33 FQF
117 17999 74 7 19 1344 38.03 55.26 156 252 33 TXC
119 16001 75 7 15 1290 38.44 55.26 144 252 32 TXC
120 13999 76 8 12 1239 38.81 55.29 131 252 32 TXC
122 12001 77 8 9 1191 39.06 55.15 117 252 32 TXC
123 10528 79 8 7 1157 39.22 54.93 104 251 32 TXC
124 10000 79 8 6 1145 39.29 54.84 100 251 32 TXC
125 9049 80 8 5 1124 39.41 54.72 91 251 31 TXC
125 8999 81 8 5 1123 39.41 54.72 90 251 31 TXC
126 7999 81 8 4 1102 39.53 54.68 80 251 31 TXC
127 7001 81 9 2 1081 39.71 54.74 67 251 31 TXC
128 6001 80 9 1 1061 39.83 54.91 52 251 31 TXC
128 5843 80 9 1 1058 39.85 54.94 49 251 31 TXC
129 4500 79 9 -1 1032 39.90 55.08 1 251 31 TXC
FQF = Falcon CO, TXC = Thurman CO
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